Growth plan for Rare Beauty, 6 Oct 2026
Scale spend. Hold CAC.
Rare Beauty already has a basket line: free standard shipping at a $50 order. This plan builds ads, creators and landing pages around it and protects one number, a $12 target CAC. Spend scales only when a winner holds that line.
- Target CAC
- $12
- New ads a week at peak
- 20
- Creators live by week six
- 10
- Test spend, six weeks
- $24,000
Contents
10 chapters, then the gates and every number’s source.
01 The number
Hold a $12 CAC while Soft Pinch and the Faves sets scale
The number to protect is a target CAC of $12. It sits at 0.6 of a $20.00 ceiling, built from a $25 average order, a 40% margin and one repeat order. Those inputs are my guesses until week one, when Rare Beauty's real numbers replace them.
Protect
Target CAC: $12 on a first purchase
Ceiling = average order × margin × (1 + repeat orders): $25 × 40% × (1 + 1) = $20.00. Guard line = 0.6 × $20.00 = $12.00. Across the ranges: $0.01 to $109.35.
Three moves
- Kill losers early: each of the 12 weekly ads is judged against the $12 guard line.
- Move budget only to ads that hold the target after the first read, never to the loudest creator.
- Keep one variable per test, so a result points to one cause: hook, shade or offer.
- order for free standard shipping
- $50
- Published
- reviews count printed on a page of the site
- 10431
- Published
- rating on Mauve Faves Lip Duo, from 3 reviews
- 4.7
- Published
02 Variety
Faves sets, balms and blush each need their own ad concepts
Each concept has to carry one reason to buy and one proof: a shade like Hope, a Mauve Faves Lip Duo at $29.00 against $43.00, or a balm that lasts up to 12 hours. No concept repeats another's hook, so every loss teaches something.
| Reason to buy | Proof you already have | Ads (proposed) |
|---|---|---|
| Minis for the bag | Three limited-edition minis to blush, glow, and gloss on the go. | 5 |
| Bestseller blush | Meet our award-winning bestseller that’s sold every four seconds. | 4 |
| Layerable fragrance | silky fragrance balm evokes a joyful moment as it melts into skin and lasts up to 12 hours | 3 |
| 12-hour brow hold | 12-hour waterproof, sweat-resistant hold that’s never sticky or crunchy | 2 |
| Easy to apply and build | airy, breathable formulas that are easy to apply, blend and build | 2 |
| Vegan & cruelty free | Vegan & Cruelty Free Makeup | 1 |
| 20% off bundles | Take 20% off when you bundle a full-size Soft Pinch Liquid Blush | 1 |
| Total | The ad concepts tab | 18 |
Each row is a reason to buy that the brand already has proof for. The count is how many of the ads carry it: a reason with a single ad is a bet, not a pattern, and the next batch of concepts moves toward the reasons that win.
03 Disturbances
Seven risks, from thin set reviews to the $50 shipping line
| Disturbance | Likelihood | Impact | Owner | Gate (proposed) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Set pages carry few reviews, so ads send shoppers to thin proof | High | Med | Your team | Landing pages show review proof before spend; ads pause on any page without it |
| The $50 free-shipping line pulls shoppers to bundles, not the product in the ad | Med | Med | Both | Average order tracked weekly against the $25 guess; test a bundle page if it misses |
| Free sample cards inflate order counts and hide the true CAC | Med | High | Me | CAC reported with sample-only orders split out from paid orders from day one |
| Event tracking is not specced, so CAC cannot be read | Med | High | Your team | Purchase events match the store's order count within a day before any spend |
| Creator claims drift past the brand's own wording on fragrance and lip products | Med | High | Me | Every brief passes the claims sheet; any off-sheet video is pulled the same day |
| Hit rate lower than guessed, so each winner costs more to find | Med | Med | Me | If week three shows no ad under the $12 guard line, cut volume and rework hooks |
| Creator ramp slips and fewer than ten are live by week six | Med | Med | Both | Two creators live by week two; if fewer, ad budget follows the real roster |
Scores are my read from outside the company, re-scored in week one with your data. Each risk has one owner and one gate that can be checked with a number, so nobody has to argue about whether it happened.
04 The ceiling
A $20.00 ceiling on a $25 average order sets the guard line
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Average order | $25 (range $0.01–$81.00) | Assumption Range from the site product prices (Published); the midpoint is a guess |
| Gross margin | 40% (range 35–45%) | Assumption Replace in week one |
| Repeat orders after the first | 1 (range 0.5–2) | Assumption Replace with cohort data in week one |
| Margin per customer, all orders | $20.00 | Calculated Average order × margin × (1 + repeat orders) |
| Guard line for CAC | $12.00 | Calculated 0.6 × the margin per customer |
The math, with the assumed lines
Ceiling = average order × margin × (1 + repeat orders): $25 × 40% × (1 + 1) = $20.00. Guard line = 0.6 × $20.00 = $12.00. Across the ranges: $0.01 to $109.35.
Range across the assumptions: $0 to $109.
The $25 order, 40% margin and one repeat order are guesses. The $20.00 ceiling and $12.00 guard line follow from them. Week one replaces each with Rare Beauty's own numbers.
The ceiling is a range, not one number: the most a new customer can cost before shipping and packaging, which I do not have. Replace the guessed lines with yours and every figure below recalculates.
05 Test ramp
Six weeks of tests, $24,000 in all, before any scale call
| Week | New ads × budget / ad (proposed) | Weekly test spend | Cumulative | Creators posting | CAC target (proposed) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 × $250 | $3,000 | $3,000 | 0 | $12 |
| 2 | 12 × $250 | $3,000 | $6,000 | 2 | $12 |
| 3 | 12–20 × $250 | $4,000 | $10,000 | 4 | $12 |
| 4 | 12–20 × $250 | $4,000 | $14,000 | 6 | $12 |
| 5 | 20 × $250 | $5,000 | $19,000 | 8 | $12 |
| 6 | 20 × $250 | $5,000 | $24,000 | 10 | $12 |
Week 1 and Week 2 run 12 ads at $250 each, $3,000 a week. Weeks 3 and 4 run 12–20 ads at $4,000 a week; Weeks 5 and 6 run 20 ads at $5,000. Total $24,000, with $6,000 cumulative after Week 2. Each weekly read decides which ads keep budget.
The math. Week 1: 12 × $250 = $3,000; Week 2: 12 × $250 = $3,000; Week 3: 16 × $250 = $4,000; Week 4: 16 × $250 = $4,000; Week 5: 20 × $250 = $5,000; Week 6: 20 × $250 = $5,000. Total $24,000 (96 ads × $250). A range such as 12–20 counts as its midpoint.
Weeks one and two test what the brand already has, rewritten per reason to buy. From week three, creator videos enter paid only after they beat their own account median. A range of new ads counts as its midpoint in the spend column.
06 Volume
More concepts, more winners: volume moves CAC, not one ad
Each extra concept gives the account another shot at a winner. At 20 concepts the guess is 2 winners and $18,000 added; at 80, 8 winners and $72,000. Hit rate and spend per winner are guesses.
| Concepts tested / month | Hit rate (assumed) | New winners / month | Spend each winner holds (assumed) | Added spend at target CAC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 10% | 2 | $300 / day | $18,000 / month |
| 40 | 10% | 4 | $300 / day | $36,000 / month |
| 60 | 10% | 6 | $300 / day | $54,000 / month |
| 80 | 10% | 8 | $300 / day | $72,000 / month |
The math. 20 concepts × 10% = 2 winners × $300 × 30 days = $18,000 a month; 40 concepts × 10% = 4 winners × $300 × 30 days = $36,000 a month; 60 concepts × 10% = 6 winners × $300 × 30 days = $54,000 a month; 80 concepts × 10% = 8 winners × $300 × 30 days = $72,000 a month.
The hit rate and the spend each winner holds are placeholders. The first thirty days of tests replace them with real numbers, and the table is recalculated the same day.
07 Allocation
Allocate $100,000 across tests, winners, creators and pages
- Creative tests: ads on blush, lip oil and Faves sets
- $40,000
- 40%
- Scaling ads that hold the $12 target
- $30,000
- 30%
- Creator pay and product for the roster
- $20,000
- 20%
- Landing pages and tracking fixes
- $10,000
- 10%
Of the $100,000 to allocate, tests come first; the split moves toward scaling as winners clear the $12 target.
The math. 40% × $100,000 = $40,000; 30% × $100,000 = $30,000; 20% × $100,000 = $20,000; 10% × $100,000 = $10,000. Sum 100% = $100,000.
This split is a proposal. It moves toward scaling as winners prove out, and toward testing when fatigue shows.
08 Channels
Meta first, then the channels the Faves sets can earn
| Channel | Open when (proposed) | Why wait |
|---|---|---|
| Meta | Week 1, with the first 12 ads | Fastest place to test hooks and creator videos for blush and lip oil. |
| TikTok | Week 3, once creator videos beat the guard line | Creator-first routines suit Soft Pinch shade demos. |
| Instagram Reels | Week 3, reusing winning Meta videos | The same creator videos run again, with no new shoots. |
| YouTube | After day 30, if CAC holds | Longer shade-and-routine videos suit a foundation with 48 variants. |
| Branded search | After day 60, if CAC holds | The home title carries Selena Gomez's name; branded search should be cheap to defend. |
A channel opens when its condition is true, not when the calendar says so. Until then the budget stays where the CAC is earned.
09 Payback
Payback decides: a $30 CAC never returns on a $25 order
Payback is the real constraint. A $5 CAC pays back on the first order with $15.00 left; $10 leaves $10.00; $20 pays back only after repeat orders with $0.00 left; $30 never does, so the answer is stop. Spend scales only on ads that stay under $12.
Cumulative margin per customer, order by order, before CAC: $10.00, $20.00.
| CAC (scenario) | First-order margin | Year-one margin | Left after CAC | Payback |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $5 | $10.00 | $20.00 | $15.00 | First order |
| $10 | $10.00 | $20.00 | $10.00 | First order |
| $20 | $10.00 | $20.00 | $0.00 | After repeat orders |
| $30 | $10.00 | $20.00 | −$10.00 | Never: stop |
The math. CAC $5: $20.00 − $5 = $15.00 left; pays back: First order; CAC $10: $20.00 − $10 = $10.00 left; pays back: First order; CAC $20: $20.00 − $20 = $0.00 left; pays back: After repeat orders; CAC $30: $20.00 − $30 = −$10.00 left; pays back: Never: stop.
Read each row left to right: the margin of the first purchase, the margin over the whole horizon, what is left after CAC, and the purchase on which the CAC is earned back. A scenario that never pays back is a stop, not a test.
10 Scope
Scope: ads, creators and pages, not the Rare Beauty product
Covers
- Meta ad concepts and tests for Soft Pinch, Faves sets and balms
- Creator briefs, roster and the weekly video flow
- One landing page per concept
- Daily CAC, weekly learnings, monthly cohort payback
Doesn’t
- Event tracking build: I spec it, your team ships it
- Product, shades, pricing and the Faves set discounts
- Legal review of claims
- Anything outside paid social and creators, such as email or retail
What this plan covers is what I can change inside the ad account and the creator program. Everything outside it is named on the right so nobody assumes it is handled.
Gates, written before spend, so stopping isn’t a negotiation.
| Day | Keep going if (proposed) | Stop or change if |
|---|---|---|
| Day 14 | Tracking matches order counts and at least one ad sits under the $12 guard line | No tracked purchase events, or no ad under $20.00 after two weeks |
| Day 30 | Tested ads average $12 CAC or less and creators go live on the ramp | CAC above $20.00 on every ad after week four |
| Day 60 | CAC holds at $12 while spend grows each week and repeat orders show in cohorts | CAC above $20.00 for two weeks running as spend rises |
| Day 90 | Cohort payback arrives by repeat order at or under the $20.00 ceiling | Cohorts show a $30 CAC with no repeat orders |
Each gate is checked on its day with the numbers in the daily and weekly reports. If the stop condition is true, the spend stops and nothing renews until we talk.
What exists, what’s missing, and the order that’s forced.
| Piece | Exists today | Missing | Forced order |
|---|---|---|---|
| creative | Soft Pinch Lip Oil Stick: 8 variants at $25.00 | 12 first-week ads, one variable each | 1st |
| creators | Selena Gomez's name leads the home title | A roster: two creators a week, up to ten live | 2nd |
| claims sheet | Jumbo Brow Gel: 12-hour hold in the brand's own words | One sheet of allowed lines per product | Week 1 |
| landing pages | Faves sets such as Mauve Faves Lip Duo at $29.00 | One page per concept, with review proof | 2nd |
| reporting | A $50 free-shipping line to track baskets against | Purchase events and a daily CAC view | Week 1 |
The order is forced on purpose: creative and creators come first because they are what moves CAC, and everything else waits for that data.
Every number, and where it came from.
| Figure | Where it came from | Type |
|---|---|---|
| $50 order for free standard shipping | https://www.rarebeauty.com/ | Fact |
| 10431 reviews count printed on a page of the site | https://www.rarebeauty.com/pages/reviews | Fact |
| 4.7 rating on Mauve Faves Lip Duo, from 3 reviews | https://www.rarebeauty.com/products/mauve-faves-lip-duo | Fact |
| Product prices $0.01–$81.00 | product prices in the site product data (142 products), read 2026-10-06 | Fact |
| $25 average order · 40% margin · 1 repeat order | Placeholders, replaced in week one | Assumed |
| $12 target CAC | 0.6 of the $20.00 margin per customer | Calculated |
| $20.00 margin per customer | Price × (margin − discount), summed over the orders | Calculated |
| $24,000 of tests (96 ads × $250) | Danilo’s plan, matches Month one | Calculated |
| 0→10 creators in 6 weeks · 7 videos per creator a week | Danilo’s plan, matches Month one and the Creator engine | Proposed |
| $100,000 first budget split 40% / 30% / 20% / 10% | Danilo’s plan, re-set with the team in week one | Calculated |
| 10% hit rate · $300 a day per winner | Placeholders, replaced by the first 30 days of tests | Assumed |
| 303 creator videos a month at 10 creators | 10 creators × 7 videos a week × 52 ÷ 12 | Calculated |
| $5.74 per 1,000 views against a $1 target | Creator cost over the views the assumptions give | Calculated |
| $1,000 base pay · $50 bonus past 100,000 views | Danilo’s plan | Proposed |
| 1,500 median views · 4% breakout (10×) · 0.5% viral (750,000) | Placeholders, replaced by the first month of posts | Assumed |
| Pay bands $300–$600, $500–$1,000, $800–$1,500 | Danilo’s plan | Proposed |
Every figure on this page is listed here with where it came from. Fact means read on the site. Assumed and Proposed are Danilo’s own numbers, to be replaced in week one. Calculated is plain arithmetic on those, with the formula shown next to it.
Month one is where it starts.
Week one: I spec tracking with your team, write the claims sheet from your own product wording, brief the first two creators and launch 12 ads against the $12 guard line. Losers get killed early, and you get daily CAC.
